Weekly Update: Here’s What Comes Next for Inflation

My wife is 39 ½ weeks pregnant, and our little girl could come any second…

So, I’m writing this ahead of the opening bell on Friday to make sure I got this week’s Watchlist done early just in case.

Now, after a strong week to start July, stocks retraced on light volume this week.

In my opinion, the market is trying to form a bottom. 

This tends to be a process with movement back and forth as large traders begin covering shorts and gradually increase their exposure on the long side.

Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation made yet another high at 9.1% for the prior 12 months. 

The Nasdaq opened lower but recovered by the end of session to close down just 0.14% for the day.

Believe it or not, this is positive… 

Silver Linings

The fact that the market can rally or at least hold on amid negative news is a good sign that the market could be nearing the lows. 

Additionally, commodity prices continue to come down. 

Commodities are the inputs of most final products, so it takes some time for those price reductions to work their way through the supply chain. 

But to me, this is a sign that inflation is cooling. Just take a look at these commodity drawdowns from their 52-week highs…

Lumber -58%, Nickel -54%, Aluminum -37%, Natural Gas -31%, Steel -28%, Wheat -28%, Zinc -25%, Lead -23%, Copper -22%, Soybeans -18%, Oil -13%, Orange Juice -11%.

Daily Chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) – Source: TradingView

Now, getting back to the Nasdaq, I’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the daily chart above… 

Whichever line is hit first will likely lead the next move.

A breakout above the green line should lead to a rally higher, at least for the short term.

A breakdown below the red line, however, should mean new lows and another leg lower for the markets.

Join Me on Monday

Before we get to this week’s Watchlist, I want to remind you to join me on Monday afternoon for our Stealth Trades Live Class at 3:00 p.m. ET…

I’m going to outline our plans for dealing with whatever the market happens to throw at us next, and we’ll take a look at our Watchlist stocks and other potential ideas in more detail.

So again, please join me right here on Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET!

In the meantime, I have three new trades for you this week, each with classic bullish setups that should lead to higher prices…

Molson Coors Beverage Company (Long Idea)

During Thursday’s “State of the Market” webinar with my colleagues Josh Martinez, Anthony Speciale, I pointed out that the alcoholic beverage sector is coming out of a Stage 1 base and is on the verge of breaking out higher.

Daily Chart of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 96/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 39%
  • Sales growth: +17%
  • Return on Equity: 7%
  • Triple momentum: yes 

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is one of the strongest stocks in this sector and currently finishing a 12-month “cup with handle” pattern.

Consider buying here with a stop at $54.10.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. (Long Idea)

Another alcoholic beverage stock that looks even stronger to me is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI).

Daily Chart of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 77%
  • Sales growth: +80%
  • Return on Equity: +20%
  • Triple momentum: yes 

The distilled spirit-maker is forming a “base on base” pattern with extremely tight price action over the last two weeks.

The relative strength line is steadily climbing higher even as the broader market chops back and forth.

Consider buying MGPI on a breakout above $103.25 with a stop at $99.05 for a very low-risk trade.

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (Long Idea)

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) is a biotech stock that has been steadily drifting higher since February.

Daily Chart of Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 97/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 50%
  • Sales growth: +32%
  • Return on Equity: 169%
  • Triple momentum: yes

It broke out to new highs on heavy volume on July 7 but has since pulled back to the 21-day moving average.

Traders may consider a pullback buy here with a stop beneath the swing low at $43.40.

Join the Insiders

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Do yourself a favor and check out my latest Insider Effect presentation!

Corporate insiders are always buying or selling shares in the companies they operate. These folks have a footing of knowledge that Main Street investors simply do not.

I talked more about this in my latest presentation, which you can watch at your convenience right here.

I covered my strategy for trading alongside corporate insiders and generating potentially massive gains as a result.

Just click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on…

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Weekly Update: The Next Leaders Emerge from the Market Rubble

In our live Alpha Stocks session this past Monday, I pointed out that stocks were severely oversold and I was looking for a short-term bounce. 

Stocks rose as expected during the following week, but as I write this on Friday morning, the rally seems fairly unimpressive.

The S&P 500 is up roughly 4% from last week’s close, but we have not seen aggressive buying volume.

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Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index with Volume Indicators – Source: TradingView

We managed to avoid any new 90% down volume days, but we did not see a 90% up volume day either…

That’s a sign I am waiting for to signal that buyers might be returning.

The number of stocks making new lows continues to outpace the ones making new highs as well.

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Daily Chart of Nasdaq Composite with Market Breadth Indicator – Source: TradingView

While it was good to see the ratio shrinking last week, a healthy market will have stocks breaking out to new highs and fewer names undercutting prior lows.

Unfortunately for the bulls, it has been over two weeks since we have seen a day with net new highs.

Showing Promise

That being said, a few groups of stocks are starting to show promise. 

It is vitally important to watch which stocks are making highs when the market is making lows. 

This is usually the next group of market leaders that can advance several hundred percent once the next bull market begins.

Chemical, shipping and energy stocks were the clear leaders in 2022. But their reign quickly came to an end.

Over the last two weeks, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is down 23%. 

Shipping stocks like ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM), Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK), Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) and Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd. (GRIN) have fallen 25%-30% each. 

And Dow Inc. (DOW) has wiped out all of its 2022 gains in just three weeks.

So… who are the new leaders?

Bullish Biotechs

So far, the new leaders all seem to be biotechnology companies. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) rose over 12% last week. 

And stocks like Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (VIVO), Chinook Therapeutics, Inc. (KDNY), Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR), Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLO) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) are all showing a lot of strength on increasing volume.

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Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (VIVO) with Volume Indicator – Source: TradingView

The increase in volume is a crucial distinction that is often overlooked by amateur traders. 

We want to see heavy buying from large institutions as they are building up positions. And volume is the secret footprint that reveals this activity.

I am also seeing strength in several solar energy stocks. Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ), Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG), JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) and a few others are beginning to set up as potential buys.  

The general market, however, is still in no-man’s land. It has not yet shown enough strength to start heavily buying. 

The indexes are also too far extended to safely enter a good short position.

Therefore, risk-averse traders might consider sitting out for the week until the market shows where it wants to go.

The Nasdaq index, represented below by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), is beginning to tighten up and coil before making its next move.

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Daily Chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) – Source: TradingView

Which direction the market moves next remains to be seen, but I have enough confidence in this week’s Watchlist ideas to bring them to you today.

You’ll find two new long ideas and one new short idea added to the Watchlist below…

Chinook Therapeutics, Inc. (Long Idea)

Chinook Therapeutics, Inc. (KDNY) is a biotech stock coming out of a two-year base pattern.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

TradingView Chart
Weekly Chart of Chinook Therapeutics, Inc. (KDNY) – Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 97/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 79%
  • Sales growth: +671%
  • Return on Equity: N/A
  • Triple momentum: yes 

The company has three drugs in its development pipeline, one of which is in Stage 3 clinical trials. 

Good news from that trial could deliver a big surge in the share price.

KDNY has seen several weeks of big volume on its move to the highs. Consider buying the breakout with an 8% stop.

Immunocore Holdings plc (Long Idea)

Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR) is another biotechnology stock showing a lot of strength.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

TradingView Chart
Daily Chart of Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR) – Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 96/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 102%
  • Sales growth: +159%
  • Return on Equity: N/A
  • Triple momentum: yes

IMCR just completed a beautiful base pattern with volatility compressing as pullbacks shallowed from left to right – exactly the kind of price action we like to see.

Consider buying this stock here around the $37 mark with an 8% stop loss.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (Short Idea)

I added ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) to the Watchlist as a short last week, and it is finally hitting the entry trigger.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

TradingView Chart
Daily Chart of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) – Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 90/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 96%
  • Sales growth: +113%
  • Return on Equity: 191%
  • Triple momentum: no

The stock was a market leader in 2022 as marine shipping companies have been able to charge insane rates due to slowdowns in the supply chain. 

Earnings surged roughly 10-fold after the pandemic and the stock has done the same.

But President Biden basically declared war on ZIM and the other handful of companies that control the bulk of cargo shipments from overseas thanks to what the White House believes is “price gouging.”

After an 803% move higher in 2021 and early 2022, ZIM has finally started rolling over. 

Shares have seen heavy selling volume over the last few weeks, and the stock is now resting on its 200-day moving average for the first time ever.

I would consider selling ZIM short with a buy stop at $52 for protection. 

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Anthony revealed the exact “1% trading blueprint” he used to go from working day and night as an auto mechanic…

To banking $100,000+ in real trading profits six straight years in a row.

All by only logging on to his computer from the comfort of his home for 1-2 hours every week…

Click here to watch the full replay now!

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades

P.S. Were you able to join my colleague and expert trader Anthony Speciale for the unveiling of Project 6×6 and his brand-new trading service, Part Time Profits?

If not, you need to check the encore presentation right here!

Weekly Update: Setting the Stage for the Next Wave Higher

Editor’s Note: All major U.S. stock markets are closed on Monday, Feb. 21, 2022, in observance of President’s Day.

The market continues to show weakness, with all major indexes down on the week. 

Looking at our recent picks from the weekly Stealth Trades Watchlist, the best performers so far have been shorts. 

That tells me everything I need to know about the current environment. 

With the markets closed on Monday and a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, I am 100% cash going into the long weekend. 

I continue to urge caution and trading small, or not at all, until conditions improve. 

Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Paypal (PYPL), Square (SQ), the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and dozens of other mega-cap names are down 50%-60% or more. 

This is not the time to be getting aggressive. 

Your time is better spent looking for stocks that are holding up well right now and making or nearing new highs. 

These will likely be the new leaders of the next bull market, which could emerge at any time. 

As long-time readers know, bear markets always set the stage for the next wave of super-high-performance stocks.

Antero Resources Corporation

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is a $7 billion oil and gas exploration and production company operating out of the Appalachian Basin and Upper Devonian Shale.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 189%
  • Sales growth: +83%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Fundamentally, Antero is showing accelerating quarterly growth in both sales and earnings.

Shares are also making new highs while the markets are selling off, which is a clear sign of relative strength.

Oil and gas names remain strong, and AR is one of a small handful breaking out from a buyable position.

Zeta Global Holdings Corp.

Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) is a $2 billion cloud software company that aims to provide corporate clients with consumer intelligence and marketing automation solutions.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 119%
  • Sales growth: +21%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Zeta is a recent initial public offering (IPO) showing a lot of strength on good volume over the last several weeks.

After a 58% surge in just 13 days, price is consolidating in a tight range.

If ZETA can break out into new high ground, this one is worth the 9% downside risk.

Note that earnings are due on Feb. 23, after the close. I suggest waiting until Thursday morning before considering a buy.

As long as ZETA does not gap up big, this could be a buy in the mid-$12 range.

SMART Global Holdings, Inc.

SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH) is a $1.4 billion semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and computing modules for a range of technology applications.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 90/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 39%
  • Sales growth: +61%
  • Triple momentum: no

SGH is a less traditional setup designed to get in early on the turn higher.

The stock recently broke its downtrend and is now forming a small base in the $26-$29 range.

It also held its crucial 200-day moving average, which is still sloping upward.

Volume has also dried up in a big way, which could be a sign that selling has subsided.

I’m looking for a break above $29.45, preferably on volume of one million shares or more.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades