Weekly Update: Spreading Our Bets in an Unsure Market

This week was another choppy one for stocks.

The major indexes continued to bounce back and forth within a tight range, showing indecision about which way they will go next.

On Thursday morning, markets initially made a strong rally but reversed hard in the afternoon.

Perhaps more importantly, the reversal happened on greater-than-average volume.

I am still seeing way too much volume on recent down days to conclude that the selloff is over and it is once again time to go long in size.

Therefore, we are spreading our bets this week between long and short trades.

This way, we’ll get a little bit of exposure on each side so that we’re prepared for whatever the market may throw at us.

Personally, I am expecting another leg lower. But that is just a feeling and in no way something to base your trade decisions on.

As always, I will follow the market and let it dictate my trades.

Walmart Inc. (Short)

First up is a bearish idea in Walmart Inc. (WMT), the massive $376 billion discount retailer.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Weekly Chart of Walmart Inc. (WMT) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is scoring on my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 45/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 8%
  • Sales growth: +4%
  • Triple momentum: yes (short)

Despite success with its grocery pickup and delivery business, the stock looks very toppy.

As you can see in the weekly chart above, WMT has made a series of lower highs for the last six months.

The $134 level seems to be the line in the sand. If this level fails, look for a quick move to the downside.

I would consider shorting WMT either on a break below $134 or on a bounce up into the $140 range.

I would close the short trade if price breaks above the white downtrend line shown on the chart.

SilverBow Resources, Inc.

SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW) is a $400 million oil exploration and production company.

I added SBOW to the Watchlist last week, but it has not yet broken out.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is scoring on my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 99/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 331%
  • Sales growth: +117%
  • Triple momentum: yes

After a dip early in the week, shares snapped back Thursday and Friday, showing good “tennis ball action” strength.

Unfortunately, the low of the shakeout move in January is too far away to use for a stop.

Therefore, I suggest using an arbitrary stop loss of somewhere around 8%.

Look for a move above $25.55 as the entry trigger.

Signet Jewelers Limited

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) is a $4.4 billion luxury goods retailer with recognizable brands like Kay Jewelers and Zales Jewelers.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is scoring on my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 94/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 136%
  • Sales growth: +18%
  • Triple momentum: yes

SIG is an interesting setup in the consumer cyclical space.

This is one of the only areas where breakouts are getting traction (along with energy and a few regional banks).

Last week, the stock broke the downtrend line and found support against the 200-day moving average.

It is now tightening up sideways with resistance near the $88 area.

Look for a breakout above the green horizontal resistance line on the chart.

We need to see above-average volume for confirmation.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades

Weekly Update: Where We’re Looking for Solid Setups

Although the major indexes made little progress last week, volatility is subsiding.

And we are beginning to see some stocks find traction in their breakouts.

Several names (primarily oil and gas stocks) made healthy moves higher from constructive setups.

For example, Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR), which was on last week’s Watchlist, broke out last Friday on high volume.

Shares were up 8% in the first hour of trading, although they did fade a bit into the afternoon session.

And in last week’s members-only Alpha Stocks class, we reviewed Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH), which broke out this past Tuesday.

The stock jumped as much as 11.8% in just two days before pulling back.

If these breakouts can hold up and advance further, we may begin to see a healthier environment in which breakouts have a high rate of success.

But I still need to see follow-through before getting aggressive on the long side. 

Now, I mentioned last week that most of the names with good technical setups and tight pivot areas are small banks and energy stocks.

Yes, energy stocks carry risks related to the price of oil and natural gas, and banks don’t always make the strongest breakouts.

However, the three new stocks on this week’s Watchlist fall into those two categories, as those are simply where the best potential trades are currently setting up.

And as long as we can keep our stops relatively tight, we should be able to navigate these setups in a profitable way.

Weatherford International plc

First up is Weatherford International plc (WFRD), a $2.3 billion oilfield services company operating out of Houston, Texas.

This company provides the equipment and services that oil exploration and production companies need for their drilling and other operations.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Weatherford International plc (WFRD) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 99/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 160%
  • Sales growth: +17%
  • Triple momentum: yes

The setup in WFRD is almost identical to last week’s chart of Continental Resources, Inc.

It is forming a textbook cup and handle pattern and showing tremendous strength in an otherwise weak market.

Notice how the relative strength line has turned up and made a new high.

If price tightens up for a few more days, the setup will look even stronger.

SilverBow Resources, Inc.

SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW) is one of those oil exploration and production companies I just alluded to above.

This $400 million company is also based in Houston, and it focuses on acquiring and developing its land assets in the Eagle Ford shale region of South Texas.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 99/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 331%
  • Sales growth: +117%
  • Triple momentum: yes

SBOW is setting up for a “cheat entry” near the middle of its cup formation.

Unfortunately, the low of the shakeout move in January is too far away to use for a stop.

Therefore, I suggest using an arbitrary stop loss of somewhere around 6%-8%.

Look for a move above $25.55 as the entry trigger.

Preferred Bank

Preferred Bank (PFBC) is a $1.2 billion independent commercial bank operating out of Los Angeles, California.

Its operations are primarily focused on providing banking services to small and mid-sized businesses as well as other entrepreneurs, real estate developers and high net worth individuals.

Here’s how the chart is setting up:

Daily Chart of Preferred Bank (PFBC) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

  • Surge score: 96/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 63%
  • Sales growth: +3%
  • Triple momentum: yes

I don’t often trade these small local bank stocks, but there is a proliferation of setups across this sector.

When I sort my stock scans by relative strength, the list is almost exclusively energy and bank stocks. So, I’ve decided to give this one a try.

PFBC kept its selloff contained to just 7% while most of the market was melting down last month.

Shares also bounced back quickly to their highs, which is a good sign of strength underlying accumulation.

The setup is pretty straightforward… Buy a new high, and place a stop beneath the swing low.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades