Weekly Update: Searching for Pockets of Strength

Following a solid, two-week rebound rally for the market, the major indexes cooled off a bit this week.

I’ve told you in recent weeks that I was beginning to increase my exposure to stocks again, but I am being selective about it.

Here’s why…

The S&P 500 is back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), which is a good sign.

The 50-day has also started to flatten out and should turn higher in the coming days.

However, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are still sandwiched between their 50-day and 200-day MAs, so the technical picture isn’t completely bullish by any means.

And even though the S&P is above its major MAs, only about 50% of stocks in the index are trading above their own 200-day MAs.

I’d like to see a bit more participation before increasing my exposure further.

Still, there are numerous pockets of the market showing strength.

In recent Weekly Updates, I’ve highlighted energy, steel, basic materials and shipping groups as well as agricultural stocks that got a boost from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

These groups continue to thrive in a market that is largely in neutral territory, so this week we are going to stick with what’s working…

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a $2 billion natural resource company focused on producing and providing coal to utility and industrial companies.

Here’s how the stock chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 188%
  • Sales growth: +29%
  • Return on Equity: 16%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Coal stocks are booming, and ARLP has the best setup of the bunch.

While price has drifted higher, pullbacks have shallowed from 25% down to 8%.

And the shares have been trading in a tight range in the $15-$16 area for the last two weeks.

Look for a breakout above $16 to buy. Then, place a stop at $14.60 for protection.

Danaos Corporation

Danaos Corporation (DAC) is a $2.2 billion, Greece-based marine shipping and transport company with a fleet of over 70 containerships.

Here’s how the stock chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Danaos Corporation (DAC) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 97/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 129%
  • Sales growth: +80%
  • Return on Equity: 23%
  • Triple momentum: yes

I added Danaos to the Watchlist a few weeks ago, and I still like how it’s setting up.

I noted then that it had just completed a seven-month “cup and handle” pattern.

But DAC has now formed another smaller cup formation with a low-risk entry point.

Consider buying on a move above $107.50 with a stop near the $99.00 level.

Yamana Gold Inc.

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) is a $5.5 billion Canadian precious metals exploration and production company focused primarily on gold and silver.

Here’s how the stock chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 95/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 51%
  • Sales growth: +9%
  • Return on Equity: 7%
  • Triple momentum: yes

With inflation at 40-year highs, it is a wonder why gold prices are not higher than they are today.

Since the start of the pandemic, the “yellow metal” has taken a backseat to new alternative assets like BTC, but that trend appears to be shifting.

While risk here is slightly higher given that it is a lower-priced stock, Yamana is showing a lot of strength over the last few months.

I think it is worth a shot on a move to new highs above $5.80. But for protection, use a stop 10% below the entry price.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens
Editor, Stealth Trades

Weekly Update: Is The Low Finally In?

It’s been a rough year for the market so far, but things may be starting to turn around.

I’ve been waiting for a follow-through day to confirm that the low may finally be in for the market.

And this week, we got one.

As we discussed last week, I define a follow-through day as a 2%+ gain in the cash index in a day on increased volume over the previous session.

That previous session doesn’t have to be an up day, but the follow-through day must be up 2% or more from previous day’s close. And the volume must be higher than the previous day.

Well, the S&P 500 index closed higher by 2.24% this past Wednesday on increased volume.

While a follow-through day is not a guarantee that stocks have bottomed, it greatly increases the chances of the market rallying from here.

Personally, I am increasing my exposure in stocks from 10% to around 25%, and I will quickly buy more if my trades show gains. 

Don’t Make It Complicated

I try not to over-complicate it… If breakouts work and my next three to four trades are profitable, I will increase my size on the next four or five, and so on.

Right now, we are seeing the same stocks show the most strength, including mainly the energy, steel, basic materials and shipping groups.

Most of these sectors are likely to perform well with high inflation, so it is not entirely surprising that this is where money is flowing at the moment.

The major indexes are still below their 50- and 200-day moving averages, so we don’t want to dive head-first back into the market with all of our capital.

But if the low has been made, conditions will continue to improve, and more stocks will begin making new highs.

For now, we’ll take things one day at a time with an eye on this week’s Watchlist stocks…

Danaos Corporation

Danaos Corporation (DAC) is a $2.2 billion, Greece-based marine shipping and transport company.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Danaos Corporation (DAC) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 143%
  • Sales growth: +80%
  • Return on Equity: 23%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Shipping stocks are showing a lot of strength in this market.

 Many of them are already extended past a reasonable buy point, but Danaos is just breaking out of a new cup with handle pattern.

DAC has been something of a “Cinderella story” over the last two years.

In March 2020, it traded for $2.50 a share. As of this writing on Friday, the stock is trading at the $104 level – a gain of over 4,000%.

As long as DAC doesn’t get too far past the breakout level, I think this is a good buy here.

Crane Co.

Crane Co. (CR) is a $6 billion manufacturer of industrial products for a wide range of markets, including commercial and military aerospace, oil and gas and even wastewater applications.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Crane Co. (CR) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 90/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 27%
  • Sales growth: +13%
  • Return on Equity: 23%
  • Triple momentum: yes

I added Crane to the Watchlist last week, noting its tight 14% trading range over the last five months.

Shares continued to show strength this week, and the stock’s surge score improved from 85/100 to 90/100.

CR is now inches from new high ground, and I think it is a buy once it clears $109.

Place a stop near the 200-day moving average in case it fails.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) is an $11.6 billion metals provider for a variety of customers, including those in the aerospace, transportation and even semiconductor industries.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 94/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 40%
  • Sales growth: +87%
  • Return on Equity: 25%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Steel stocks continue to perform well, and Reliance is the best name in the group.

It has strong earnings and sales growth, high relative strength and a big return on equity – all the signs of a top-tier stock.

After making a nice move higher in February, RS has been consolidating all month in a nice and tight 8% range.

Consider buying new highs with a stop at the swing low near $178.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades