Weekly Update: Here’s What Comes Next for Inflation

My wife is 39 ½ weeks pregnant, and our little girl could come any second…

So, I’m writing this ahead of the opening bell on Friday to make sure I got this week’s Watchlist done early just in case.

Now, after a strong week to start July, stocks retraced on light volume this week.

In my opinion, the market is trying to form a bottom. 

This tends to be a process with movement back and forth as large traders begin covering shorts and gradually increase their exposure on the long side.

Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation made yet another high at 9.1% for the prior 12 months. 

The Nasdaq opened lower but recovered by the end of session to close down just 0.14% for the day.

Believe it or not, this is positive… 

Silver Linings

The fact that the market can rally or at least hold on amid negative news is a good sign that the market could be nearing the lows. 

Additionally, commodity prices continue to come down. 

Commodities are the inputs of most final products, so it takes some time for those price reductions to work their way through the supply chain. 

But to me, this is a sign that inflation is cooling. Just take a look at these commodity drawdowns from their 52-week highs…

Lumber -58%, Nickel -54%, Aluminum -37%, Natural Gas -31%, Steel -28%, Wheat -28%, Zinc -25%, Lead -23%, Copper -22%, Soybeans -18%, Oil -13%, Orange Juice -11%.

Daily Chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) – Source: TradingView

Now, getting back to the Nasdaq, I’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the daily chart above… 

Whichever line is hit first will likely lead the next move.

A breakout above the green line should lead to a rally higher, at least for the short term.

A breakdown below the red line, however, should mean new lows and another leg lower for the markets.

Join Me on Monday

Before we get to this week’s Watchlist, I want to remind you to join me on Monday afternoon for our Stealth Trades Live Class at 3:00 p.m. ET…

I’m going to outline our plans for dealing with whatever the market happens to throw at us next, and we’ll take a look at our Watchlist stocks and other potential ideas in more detail.

So again, please join me right here on Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET!

In the meantime, I have three new trades for you this week, each with classic bullish setups that should lead to higher prices…

Molson Coors Beverage Company (Long Idea)

During Thursday’s “State of the Market” webinar with my colleagues Josh Martinez, Anthony Speciale, I pointed out that the alcoholic beverage sector is coming out of a Stage 1 base and is on the verge of breaking out higher.

Daily Chart of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 96/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 39%
  • Sales growth: +17%
  • Return on Equity: 7%
  • Triple momentum: yes 

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is one of the strongest stocks in this sector and currently finishing a 12-month “cup with handle” pattern.

Consider buying here with a stop at $54.10.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. (Long Idea)

Another alcoholic beverage stock that looks even stronger to me is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI).

Daily Chart of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 77%
  • Sales growth: +80%
  • Return on Equity: +20%
  • Triple momentum: yes 

The distilled spirit-maker is forming a “base on base” pattern with extremely tight price action over the last two weeks.

The relative strength line is steadily climbing higher even as the broader market chops back and forth.

Consider buying MGPI on a breakout above $103.25 with a stop at $99.05 for a very low-risk trade.

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (Long Idea)

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) is a biotech stock that has been steadily drifting higher since February.

Daily Chart of Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) – Source: TradingView
  • Surge score: 97/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 50%
  • Sales growth: +32%
  • Return on Equity: 169%
  • Triple momentum: yes

It broke out to new highs on heavy volume on July 7 but has since pulled back to the 21-day moving average.

Traders may consider a pullback buy here with a stop beneath the swing low at $43.40.

Join the Insiders

Now, if you’ve ever wondered how I developed a proven track record of trading along the insiders like corporate CEOs, CFOs, executives and board members…

Do yourself a favor and check out my latest Insider Effect presentation!

Corporate insiders are always buying or selling shares in the companies they operate. These folks have a footing of knowledge that Main Street investors simply do not.

I talked more about this in my latest presentation, which you can watch at your convenience right here.

I covered my strategy for trading alongside corporate insiders and generating potentially massive gains as a result.

Just click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on…

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Weekly Update: Shorting the Worst Market We’ve Seen In a Long Time

The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes all made new lows this week.

And Friday was the 22nd consecutive day with more new lows made on the Nasdaq Composite than new highs.

Daily Chart of Nasdaq Composite Index with Net New Highs & Lows — Source: TradingView

It is clear that sellers remain in control, and we may very well see stocks continue to sell off.

Many of the growth stocks that fueled the bull market over the last two years have given up all of their post-COVID gains.

PayPal (PYPL), Netflix (NFLX), Shopify (SHOP) and dozens of other household names are down more than 70% from last year’s highs.

This week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50%, which was the largest hike in 22 years.

The Fed is expected to continue raising rates throughout the year to fight inflation…

Yes, the same inflation it caused by printing trillions of dollars over the past few years.

Guilty Until Proven Innocent

To say that market conditions are poor is a gross understatement.

Billionaire trading legend Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC recently, “You can’t think of a worse macro environment than where we are right now for financial assets…”

He continued, saying, “If there was a strategy that I would want to employ right now, if someone put a gun to my head, I’d say simple trend-following strategies.”

And folks… The trend is unquestionably pointing down.

Therefore, I am only interested in short trades at this time.

I will need to see this market rally, put in a follow-through day, and then hold without further distribution before I start buying stocks again.

With all that said, here are the setups I am watching this week…

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (Short Idea)

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) is a $18 billion logistics services company focused on trucks and transporting stuff via those trucks.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 64/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 11%
  • Sales growth: +33%
  • Return on Equity: 27%
  • Triple momentum: no

JBHT is a stock we played on the upside last summer.

But price broke down in a big way last month, falling from $220 to $170 on accelerating volume.

Shares have now put in a shelf around the $165 mark where buyers appear to be supporting the stock.

If it breaks that low, consider selling short with a stop at $179.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (Short Idea)

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is an $8 billion cruise line company operating under several different brand names with approximately 28 ships.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 31/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 23%
  • Sales growth: +1,000%
  • Return on Equity: N/A
  • Triple momentum: yes

Norwegian Cruise Line has been trending lower since mid-2021.

After breaking below its 200-day moving average, the stock has been unable to rally above it.

When selling short, I prefer to do so against a resistance level like a major moving average when possible.

For NCLH, I am looking for a pop higher that we can sell into just beneath the 200-day (white line on the chart above).

The company is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday. If the numbers are good, it might propel NCLH near the $21 level, which is where I would like to sell.

The buy stop would be on the other side of the 200-day moving average.

Summit Materials, Inc. (Short Idea)

Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM) is a $3 billion provider of construction and building materials for both residential and non-residential customers.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 40/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 1%
  • Sales growth: -2%
  • Return on Equity: 8%
  • Triple momentum: yes (short)

Summit is a classic “broken leader” that could easily get cut in half over the next few months.

The stock advanced more than five-fold from the 2020 lows to late 2021 but has now turned south.

The 200-day line has been broken, and last month’s rally attempt failed and has now returned the stock to its lows.

The company announced larger losses than expected in its quarterly earnings report this week, which is only adding fuel to the bearish fire.

Consider selling SUM short on a move below $26.40.

Join the Insiders

Now, if you’ve ever wondered how I developed a proven track record of trading along the insiders like corporate CEOs, CFOs, executives and board members…

Do yourself a favor and check out my latest Insider Effect presentation!

Corporate insiders are always buying or selling shares in the companies they operate. These folks have a footing of knowledge that Main Street investors simply do not.

I talked more about this in my latest presentation, which you can watch at your convenience right here.

I covered my strategy for trading alongside corporate insiders and generating potentially massive gains as a result.

Just click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Weekly Update: Revising the Meaning of “Don’t Fight the Fed”

Many of you have likely heard the old Wall Street adage, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

Usually, this phrase is uttered by bullish investors warning their bearish counterparts not to short a rising market being fueled by easy monetary policy.

But at this point, with the Federal Reserve seemingly set to defeat rising inflation by any means necessary, it’s taking on a different meaning.

New Meaning

For me, fighting the Fed right now would mean trying to buy stocks in the face of tightening monetary policy.

Instead of taking on that risk, I am starting to look for more ways to go with the market flow.

After all, the Nasdaq made a new year-to-date low this week, indicating that this bear market is not over yet.

Therefore, on today’s Watchlist, I’m including just one bullish idea and two bearish ideas.

Both technically and from a fundamental perspective, I think we’ll have more success trading with the Fed rather than against it.

With that in mind, let’s get right to our newest ideas…

Jackson Financial Inc.

Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN) is a $3.7 billion financial planning firm showing huge growth in both sales and earnings.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN) — Source: TradingView

Here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 97/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 98%
  • Sales growth: +170%
  • Return on Equity: 32%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Growth stocks have been hammered over the last six months, but JXN has held up better than most.

It is also a recent initial public offering (IPO), so this would be the first base breakout for the stock.

The stock has compressed nicely with pullbacks shallowing from 25% to just 8%.

I am looking to buy the stock on a break above $44.10 with a stop beneath the swing low at $42.05.

MaxLinear, Inc. (Short Idea)

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) is a $3.9 billion semiconductor company focused on communications chips.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) — Source: TradingView

Here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 77/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 59%
  • Sales growth: +26%
  • Return on Equity: 49%
  • Triple momentum: yes (short)

This stock was a big winner in 2020 and 2021, climbing over 800% in less than two years.

But the bullish run appears to be over.

Shares have rolled over hard, making a decisive break of the 200-day moving average and plummeting to new lows.

The stock popped up on earnings last week, but I would use this as an opportunity to sell the stock short.

Try to sell near the $50 level and use the 200-day moving average as your stop loss.

RH (Short Idea)

RH (RH), also known as Restoration Hardware, is an $8.5 billion luxury home furnishings retailer.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of RH (RH) — Source: TradingView

Here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 18/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 8%
  • Sales growth: +11%
  • Return on Equity: 95%
  • Triple momentum: yes (short)

Restoration Hardware is getting destroyed.

It’s down more than 50% over the last six months, with no sign of coming back to life.

So far, RH has found support at the $320 level.

But it has been tested four times so far, and I don’t expect it to survive a fifth test.

If the stock makes new lows, this would be a good short opportunity.

I would use the 50-day moving average as my initial stop and then bring it down as the trade moves lower.

Join the Insiders

Now, if you’ve ever wondered how I developed a proven track record of trading along the insiders like corporate CEOs, CFOs, executives and board members…

Do yourself a favor and check out my latest Insider Effect presentation!

Corporate insiders are always buying or selling shares in the companies they operate. These folks have a footing of knowledge that Main Street investors simply do not.

I talked more about this in my latest presentation, which you can watch at your convenience right here.

I covered my strategy for trading alongside corporate insiders and generating potentially massive gains as a result.

Just click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.