Weekly Update: Is The Low Finally In?

It’s been a rough year for the market so far, but things may be starting to turn around.

I’ve been waiting for a follow-through day to confirm that the low may finally be in for the market.

And this week, we got one.

As we discussed last week, I define a follow-through day as a 2%+ gain in the cash index in a day on increased volume over the previous session.

That previous session doesn’t have to be an up day, but the follow-through day must be up 2% or more from previous day’s close. And the volume must be higher than the previous day.

Well, the S&P 500 index closed higher by 2.24% this past Wednesday on increased volume.

While a follow-through day is not a guarantee that stocks have bottomed, it greatly increases the chances of the market rallying from here.

Personally, I am increasing my exposure in stocks from 10% to around 25%, and I will quickly buy more if my trades show gains. 

Don’t Make It Complicated

I try not to over-complicate it… If breakouts work and my next three to four trades are profitable, I will increase my size on the next four or five, and so on.

Right now, we are seeing the same stocks show the most strength, including mainly the energy, steel, basic materials and shipping groups.

Most of these sectors are likely to perform well with high inflation, so it is not entirely surprising that this is where money is flowing at the moment.

The major indexes are still below their 50- and 200-day moving averages, so we don’t want to dive head-first back into the market with all of our capital.

But if the low has been made, conditions will continue to improve, and more stocks will begin making new highs.

For now, we’ll take things one day at a time with an eye on this week’s Watchlist stocks…

Danaos Corporation

Danaos Corporation (DAC) is a $2.2 billion, Greece-based marine shipping and transport company.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Danaos Corporation (DAC) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 143%
  • Sales growth: +80%
  • Return on Equity: 23%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Shipping stocks are showing a lot of strength in this market.

 Many of them are already extended past a reasonable buy point, but Danaos is just breaking out of a new cup with handle pattern.

DAC has been something of a “Cinderella story” over the last two years.

In March 2020, it traded for $2.50 a share. As of this writing on Friday, the stock is trading at the $104 level – a gain of over 4,000%.

As long as DAC doesn’t get too far past the breakout level, I think this is a good buy here.

Crane Co.

Crane Co. (CR) is a $6 billion manufacturer of industrial products for a wide range of markets, including commercial and military aerospace, oil and gas and even wastewater applications.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Crane Co. (CR) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 90/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 27%
  • Sales growth: +13%
  • Return on Equity: 23%
  • Triple momentum: yes

I added Crane to the Watchlist last week, noting its tight 14% trading range over the last five months.

Shares continued to show strength this week, and the stock’s surge score improved from 85/100 to 90/100.

CR is now inches from new high ground, and I think it is a buy once it clears $109.

Place a stop near the 200-day moving average in case it fails.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) is an $11.6 billion metals provider for a variety of customers, including those in the aerospace, transportation and even semiconductor industries.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Daily Chart of Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) — Source: TradingView

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 94/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 40%
  • Sales growth: +87%
  • Return on Equity: 25%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Steel stocks continue to perform well, and Reliance is the best name in the group.

It has strong earnings and sales growth, high relative strength and a big return on equity – all the signs of a top-tier stock.

After making a nice move higher in February, RS has been consolidating all month in a nice and tight 8% range.

Consider buying new highs with a stop at the swing low near $178.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades

Weekly Update: Bulls Getting Bullied as Large Funds Liquidate

We continue to see the same action in the markets that we saw the week before.

Selling is the dominating force right now, with only a few pockets of the market seeing strength.

Those groups are almost exclusively energy-focused, such as those in oil, coal and even solar companies.

I’m bringing you one of those companies in today’s Watchlist…

But what’s behind the selling is the fact that hedge funds are seeing record redemptions.

In other words, investors are pulling their money and saying, “no more!”

This is forcing those large funds to liquidate positions, which is sending stocks lower, especially the mega-cap names they loaded up on over the last couple years.

That’s why we are seeing the greatest declines in the big, “innovative” companies that saw huge gains in 2020 and 2021.

The selling is also now leading the S&P 500 index toward a so-called “death cross,” where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.

Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index with “Death Crosses” – Source: TradingView

This bearish crossover indicates that the bearish short-term momentum is overtaking the bullish longer-term momentum.

Now, I don’t put too much emphasis on bullish or bearish moving average crossovers, but I wanted to mention it today because we are likely to see one occur for the first time since March of 2020.

At that time, the crossover actually occurred after the market had bottomed, but in previous instances, the death crosses did precede further selling.

Waiting for Follow-Through

As I mentioned in the March 7 live class, we need to see a “follow-through day” in either the S&P 500 or Nasdaq index before having any chance of seeing a bottom.

If you’re not familiar with the term, I define a follow-through day as a 2%+ gain in the cash index in a day on increased volume over the previous session.

That previous session doesn’t have to be an up day, but the follow-through day must be up 2% or more from previous day’s close. And the volume must be higher than the previous day.

So far, we have not seen that. And until we do, it would be foolish to get aggressive with long ideas.

Remember, a trader’s job in a bear market is capital preservation. You want to maintain your capital, keep losses small or stay out of the market altogether.

This way, when the good times return (which they could at any time), you will have maximum capital with which to seize big opportunities.

With all that in mind, we’re not going to try to catch any “falling knives” this week.

Instead, we’re looking for our usual set ups, which means stocks that are holding up well in this down market and are primed to break out of longer-term consolidation periods.

Crane Co.

Crane Co. (CR) is a $6 billion manufacturer of industrial products for a wide range of markets, including commercial and military aerospace, oil and gas and even wastewater applications.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Weekly Chart of Crane Co. (CR) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 85/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 21%
  • Sales growth: +13%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Crane has traded in an incredibly tight 14% range for almost five months now.

Even a raging bear market has not been able to drive this stock lower.

As you can see in the weekly chart above, shares have traded sideways for almost a year.

Once CR breaks out of this range and gets into new high territory, this one could make a substantial move to the upside.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) is a $70 billion biotechnology and healthcare company focused on creating medicines to treat a variety of different diseases.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

Weekly Chart of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 86/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 42%
  • Sales growth: +104%
  • Triple momentum: yes

Regeneron is a name we added to the Watchlist back in late January, but it never broke out.

The stock finally appears to be finding buyers, as it has broken out of a long “pendant” formation.

This one is buyable here at the current price.

And given the extended consolidation period, you only need to risk about 6% on the trade with a stop beneath the swing low at $598.

Natural Resource Partners L.P.

Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) is a $490 million natural resources company that collects royalties from leasing out its portfolio of mineral properties.

Here’s how the chart is setting up… 

Weekly Chart of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) — Source: TC2000

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

  • Surge score: 98/100
  • % Above 52-wk low: 175%
  • Sales growth: +90%
  • Triple momentum: yes

The entire energy sector is red hot right now.

Oil is getting all the press, but coal stocks are surging as well.

Case in point, Natural Resource Partners.

Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows outline a beautiful uptrend with no signs of slowing down.

I would consider buying at new highs with an 8% stop.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades. 

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades