Bearish Archives - Stealth Trades Premium Content

Weekly Update: The Bear Market is Dead

Ross Givens on July 29, 2022

Stocks continued to power higher this week, which so far confirms what my indicators are telling me…

The low is in, and we are at the start of a new bull market.

You should have received a text alert from me with a short YouTube video the other week highlighting the major signals that the market has turned.

If you need a refresher, click here to watch the video now.

Since the low made on June 17, we’ve seen four follow-through days on the S&P 500 as well as two 90% up-volume days.

TradingView Chart — ***Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index with Volume Indicators – Source: TradingView***

This shows high-conviction buying, and the market is rallying because of it.

We have also seen 10 days in a row of net new highs on the Nasdaq.

In a bear market, we tend to see more stocks making new lows than stocks making new highs.

In a bull market, the opposite is true.

The 10-day new high streak is the longest we’ve seen since the market began selling off in January.

The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages is now a bullish 65%.

And the percentage above their 200-day moving averages seems to have bottomed and is now surging higher.

Chart, line chart

Description automatically generated — ***Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day (left) and 200-Day (right) Moving Averages – Source: TradingView***

With so many indicators confirming the bear market is dead, it is time to start looking for good investments.

That is why I issued a buy recommendation for McKesson Corporation (MCK) this week.

Our New Stealth Trade

Today, let’s break down that trade in a bit more detail…

When it comes to picking stocks, I take a top-down approach. It is a simple three-step process:

Market Direction
Market Sector
Stock

First is market direction. For all the reasons we just discussed, I believe the market is now moving higher.

Next, I want to find the strongest groups or sectors in the market.

All things being equal, a bullish setup in a strong sector is going to outperform a bullish setup in a weak sector nine times out of 10.

It’s not rocket science. Stocks tend to move in herds.

Earlier this year, it was oil, chemical and shipping stocks leading the way. Pick any name in the group, and there’s a good chance you made money.

Right now, I’m seeing strength in solar, medical, consumer services and food/grocery stocks.

MarketSmith breaks the stock market down into 197 industry groups and ranks them based on their performance.

Here is the top 10%…

Table

Description automatically generated — ***Top Industry Groups – Source: MarketSmith***

This is where I like to focus my scans, because I know the odds of finding a big winner are vastly improved by sticking to the top groups.

In the “wholesale drug supply” group, McKesson is the top stock in terms of both relative strength and earnings per share.

And a quick look at the chart shows a textbook breakout setup…

The stock formed a four-month base with resistance at $335 and a nice tight pivot point on the right side of the chart.

Relative strength was steadily rising, and all major moving averages were trending higher.

The up/down volume ratio was bullish, and there were several high-volume accumulation days within the base.

None of this is a guarantee the trade will make money. But the odds are definitely stacked in favor of a profitable outcome.

I’ll keep you in the loop as this trade progresses, and I’ll be sure to issue an alert as soon as it’s time to take profits.

Stay tuned!

Stealth Trades Watchlist

Going forward, your Weekly Updates will look a lot more like this one…

They’ll include more information on our current stock recommendations and put less of a focus on our weekly Watchlist.

Don’t worry – The full Watchlist is still available on our website right here!

But it’s important to remember that not all of the stocks on our Watchlist are actionable.

When it’s time to make an official recommendation for our Trade Tracker, I’ll let you know on our Alerts page right here!

Join the Insiders

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Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades.

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to learn more about my Insider Effect strategy and see what you could be missing out on.

Weekly Update: My Good Luck Charm Has Just Arrived

Ross Givens on July 22, 2022

I’m elated to announce that my wife gave birth to our daughter this past Sunday.

So far, she seems to be the good luck charm this market desperately needed.

This week, the S&P 500 saw two 90% up volume days, a valid follow-through day and a bullish break of the recent swing high.

It also reclaimed its 50-day moving average.

There were also more stocks making new highs than new lows every day last week.

This was the first time we have seen that since the rally in late March.

None of these factors equate to a guarantee that stocks will go up from here…

But when all of my internal indicators fire to the long side in the same week, I start buying.

So, I have increased exposure in my personal accounts.

Based on how those trades work out, I will either bump my size up again if the trades make money on the whole or go back down to quarter size if they don’t.

Join Me on Monday

Before we get to this week’s Watchlist, I want to remind you to join me on Monday afternoon for our Stealth Trades Live Class at 3:00 p.m. ET…

I’m going to outline our plans for trading during this rally, and we’ll take a look at our Watchlist stocks and other potential ideas in more detail.

So again, please join me right here on Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET!

In the meantime, here are the three top trades I’m watching this week…

Enphase Energy, Inc. (Long Idea)

I have been talking about the strength in solar stocks for several weeks now, and Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) is one of my favorites.

Surge score: 98/100

% Above 52-wk low: 93%
Sales growth: +46%
Return on Equity: 74%
Triple momentum: yes

The stock is completing a textbook breakout pattern, with volatility compressing as pullbacks have shallowed from left to right.

The pivot area is around $220.

A move above that level has a high probability of leading to a strong move to the upside.

McKesson Corporation (Long Idea)

Despite a hideous bear market in the first half of 2022, McKesson Corporation (MCK) stock has been surging.

Surge score: 97/100

% Above 52-wk low: 79%
Sales growth: +12%
Return on Equity: N/A
Triple momentum: yes

Shares are up 34% year-to-date, and most of that move occurred in just the first quarter.

After making new all-time highs, the medical supply company began consolidating in April and now looks ready to break out for another leg higher.

There are definite signs of accumulation in the base, and volume is drying up as price is tightening at the end… Exactly what we want to see.

Consider buying on a move above $336 with a sell stop at $315. This equates to a 6% risk on the trade.

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (Long Idea)

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) is a small-cap company focused on treating and supplying water products to customers in the Cayman Islands, Bahamas and British Virgin Islands.

Surge score: 97/100
% Above 52-wk low: 61%
Sales growth: +14%
Return on Equity: 2%
Triple momentum: yes

The stock made a powerful move higher in May, advancing 40% in just one month. Shares then pulled back and consolidated in the $14 area.

A look at the volume candles below the chart shows clear signs of accumulation (large buying) and very little selling.

This is a good sign that may point to institutions building large positions in the stock.

Consider buying CWCO on a move above $15.00.

This is a smaller stock with lighter trading volume, so I want to see a large volume spike on the breakout for confirmation.

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Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades.

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Click here to register for my special one-time training event of “Operation: FIRE Trader”… You won’t want to miss this!

Weekly Update: Don’t Attempt to Catch This Falling Knife

Ross Givens on June 17, 2022

The selling continues…

Last week, I shared why I was bearish on the market and expected stocks to continue lower.

Unsurprisingly, that is exactly what happened.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each fell roughly 6%. And BTC dropped another 22% this week!

If you’re new to trading and haven’t experienced one yet, this is what happens in a bear market. It can get ugly in a hurry.

That’s why I’ve been pounding the table since last year telling folks not to get aggressive and remain mostly in cash.

I held a webinar on Tuesday where I talked about a few under-the-surface breadth indicators I am watching to signal when the market has bottomed.

Here is a quick update on the technical picture…

Digging In

The Nasdaq is currently giving oversold readings, which under normal circumstances can lead to a short-term bounce.

But in severe bear markets like this one, stocks will often remain oversold for longer than usual.

***Daily Chart of Nasdaq Composite with Breadth Indicators – Source: TradingView***

Less than 15% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average, and even the strongest groups like chemicals, shipping and energy have broken down and sold off.

The only surprising thing to me is the put/call ratio. Markets tend to bottom at the point of maximum pain.

When the last bull finally capitulates and sells… When the diamond-handed, “hold on for dear life” boys finally throw in the towel… And the financial news is screaming recession, that is usually the bottom.

Traditionally, we see the put/call ratio spike to 1.40 or higher as investors pile into call options to protect what they have left or bet on lower prices.

But this week, it pulled back below 1.00. That’s a signal that investors may not yet have hit their “cry uncle” point.

We also saw another 90% down-volume day on Thursday, making this the seventh one since April.

***Daily Chart of S&P 500 with Volume Indicators – Source: TradingView***

To put that in perspective, there were only six during the 2020 pandemic selloff.

No Crystal Ball

I don’t pretend to know how low the market will go or where the bottom will be.

In fact, you should be skeptical of anyone who claims they do.

All we can do is listen to the market and trade with the prevailing trend.

One day that trend will be up. But right now, it is unquestionably down.

And for those of you tempted to buy here because stocks look “cheap,” remember that they can always get cheaper.

Selloffs and meltdowns don’t happen from the top. They come at the end of a steady decline.

Want proof? Here’s a comparison of the S&P 500 in 2008 versus today…

***Daily S&P 500 Comparison Chart 2008 vs. 2022 – Source: TradingView***

I’m not saying this is what will happen… But you can see how the decline accelerated into the later stages of the 2008 bear market.

Okay… If I haven’t bored you yet, here is my Watchlist for this week. It shouldn’t be surprising that they are all short trades…

The Boeing Company (Short Idea)

The Boeing Company (BA) has been trending lower since last March – 10 months before the bear market even started.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

***Daily Chart of The Boeing Company (BA) – Source: TradingView***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 24/100
% Above 52-wk low: 18%
Sales growth: -8%
Return on Equity: N/A
Triple momentum: yes (short)

Sales are declining, and the company is losing money hand-over-fist. Institutions have also been exiting the stock for the last four quarters.

If you’ve attended the last few live Monday sessions, you know I prefer to short weak stocks when they bounce up into resistance – preferably a downtrend line or major moving average.

BA is roughly 7% below its 50-day moving average, which will likely serve as resistance for the stock.

Traders may consider selling BA short in the $135-$145 range using a 10% stop for protection.

By the way, do be sure to check in to the live session on Monday right here…

We’re going to have plenty to talk about next week!

JD.com, Inc. (Short Idea)

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is a Chinese retailer offering a wide variety of products via their website and mobile app.

Basically, it is China’s version of Amazon… only not nearly as good.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

***Daily Chart of JD.com, Inc. (JD) – Source: TradingView***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 70/100
% Above 52-wk low: 58%
Sales growth: +22%
Return on Equity: 9%
Triple momentum: no

I’ll admit to being a bit biased on this one because I strongly dislike Chinese stocks.

I have seen too many rug-pulls, ghost companies and too much outright fraud from Chinese companies to have any real faith in their stocks that trade on our exchanges…

Not to mention the government’s history of nationalizing private industries and just generally hating US investors.

That being said, the stock is a textbook short setup…

After a severe decline, JD bounced into its 200-day moving average, which will likely act as resistance.

Consider selling JD short here with a buy stop near $69.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (Short Idea)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) is a stronger stock than I typically look to short, but I believe this is the beginning of the end for ZIM.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

***Daily Chart of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) – Source: TradingView***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 93/100
% Above 52-wk low: 106%
Sales growth: +113%
Return on Equity: 191%
Triple momentum: no

The stock has been a market leader in 2022 as marine shipping companies have been able to charge insane rates due to slowdowns in the supply chain.

Earnings surged roughly 10-fold after the pandemic, and the stock has done the same.

But President Biden basically declared war on ZIM and the other handful of companies that control the bulk of cargo shipments from overseas thanks to what the White House believes is “price gouging.”

After an 803% move higher in 2021 and early 2022, ZIM has finally started rolling over.

Shares have seen heavy selling volume over the last few weeks, and the stock is now resting on its 200-day moving average for the first time ever.

If ZIM breaks below $47, I would consider selling it short with a buy stop at $52.

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Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades.

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. Don’t miss the groundbreaking reveal of Project 6×6… Click right here to register your email address and stay in the know.

Weekly Update: Ready to Sell the Snap-Back Rally

Ross Givens on May 20, 2022

Surprise, surprise… Another down week for stocks.

As I pointed out last week, the trend is unquestionably bearish.

The markets continue to see sellers in control with high volume on the downside.

As I write this update, the S&P 500 is trading within 2% of its 52-week low…

Not a good sign for bulls.

Retail Gets Rocked

Retail was hit hardest this week, which was certainly a contributing factor to the overall selloff.

Disappointing numbers from Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) triggered a selloff in consumer staple stocks, which is typically a sector that investors look to for safety.

In just three days, Target stock fell 30%, and Walmart was down almost 20%. Even Procter & Gamble (PG) was down double digits.

Higher prices at the grocery store are translating to lower sales and profits.

And what’s happening is that Wall Street is learning that the retail consumer, the biggest overall contributor to gross domestic product (GDP), is not as healthy as we thought.

Sell the Snap-Back

I remain bearish on the overall market and will again focus on short trades next week.

But it is important to remember that we could see a “snap-back rally” at any time.

If that happens, I will use it as a chance to sell the bounce and get short the worst-performing stocks as they approach their 50-day moving averages.

Historically, some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets.

***Daily Chart of Nasdaq 100 Index — Source: TradingView***

Back in March, for example, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 17% in just two weeks.

But the selling soon resumed.

So, be cautious and don’t get sucked into buying until we have real confirmation that the bear has been killed.

I’ll let you know when the time comes. For now, here’s our latest list of short candidates…

SPX Corporation (Short Idea)

SPX Corporation (SPXC) is a $2.2 billion infrastructure equipment company for the heating and air industry.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 38/100
% Above 52-wk low: 13%
Sales growth: +7%
Return on Equity: 12%
Triple momentum: yes (short)

SPXC has been falling all year. The stock has stair-stepped its way down in a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Resistance can be found at the red 50-day moving average where I have highlighted sell zones on the chart above.

Consider shorting SPXC here with a stop above the $50 level.

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (Short Idea)

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) is a $3.1 billion technology company that makes smart devices and systems for residential and commercial properties.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 38/100
% Above 52-wk low: 12%
Sales growth: +19%
Return on Equity: 19%
Triple momentum: yes (short)

You’ll notice the chart for ALRM looks almost identical to SPXC…

Both are following the same pattern of lower lows and lower highs and finding resistance at the 50-day.

I suggest using last week’s rally as an opportunity to sell ALRM short with a buy stop around the $65 mark.

If the trade works properly, the stock should make new lows in a week or two, which is where I would begin taking profits.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (Short Idea)

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is the $153 billion semiconductor company best known for its computing and graphics processors.

Here’s how the chart is setting up…

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System…

Surge score: 59/100
% Above 52-wk low: 16%
Sales growth: +71%
Return on Equity: 52%
Triple momentum: yes (short)

The fundamentals for AMD actually look good. But as always, the market knows best…

And the market has been selling AMD en masse for the last six months.

This week, the stock tested its 50-day moving average (red line) without success.

The stock appears to be rolling over, giving investors a low-risk opportunity to play the short side.

Consider selling AMD short here with a stop above this week’s high at $104.25.

Where’s the Alpha?

With the major indexes down double-digits and many of last year’s leading stocks down over 50%, consider checking out my Alpha Stocks trading service.

We have plenty of long ideas for the right stocks, but we’re also not afraid to go short. We short stocks and we also provide option alternatives if that’s more of your style.

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If you’re ready to see what you could be missing out on, click here to learn more about Alpha Stocks now!

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades.

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades
P.S. If you’re ready to see what you could be missing out on, click here to learn more about Alpha Stocks now!

Weekly Update: Market Bulls Battle Their Way Back

Ross Givens on December 10, 2021

A week ago, market bulls were still reeling from a sharp Black Friday selloff that took the S&P 500 down 2.3%.

Over the following three sessions, the index saw two more relatively big drops of 1.9% and 1.2%.

Traders panicked…

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spiked over the 35 level, the highest reading since early February.

Volatility Retreats as Bears Flee

As regular readers know, the VIX is known as the market’s “fear gauge.”

It tends to rise when the market falls, and it tends to fall when the market rises.

Now, sure, there are legitimate reasons to worry about the stock market right now…

As I’ve been telling you, individual stock participation is low, which could be a warning sign.

There’s also still the potential for inflationary pressures to hit stocks further.

But the move in the VIX was just plain excessive for what was ultimately just a 5% drop in the market over the course of two weeks.

***Daily Chart of S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) — Source: TradingView***

As you can see in the chart above, the fear gauge has pulled back sharply as the panic has subsided and the S&P has regained nearly all of its lost ground.

In fact, as of this writing, the S&P 500 is on the verge of setting a new all-time weekly closing high. That would be a very bullish sign.

But it doesn’t mean that a rising tide is going to lift all boats, however.

Remember… We are approaching the end of the year, when fund managers have to report their holdings to investors.

The last thing a manager wants is for new investors in the fund to learn they were holding underperforming stocks.

Managers tend to sell their worst performers so that they are off the books for next year’s prospectus.

This causes the stocks that have performed the worst during the course of the year to sell off even further in December.

So, I continue to stress that this is not a time to be overly aggressive, especially if you are new to trading.

Instead, we are going to focus on finding good setups with signs of institutional buying and low-risk entry points.

And from the research I’ve done this week, I’ve come up with three of those setups for you today.

Applied Materials, Inc.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is in the semiconductor wafer market. This is ground zero for semiconductor manufacturers that absolutely can’t make another chip without wafers.

I’m sure you’ve heard about the current chip shortage and high demand… AMAT is where the chips start, so all of the unfilled chip orders means more orders for the company’s wafers.

Here’s how the chart is setting up:

***Daily Chart of Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — Source: TC2000***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

Surge score: 92/100
% Above 52-wk low: 75%
MFI reading: 36
Sales growth: +31%
Triple momentum: yes

After forming a huge base that started in April, AMAT finally cleared its $145 resistance level.

But recent weakness gave us a retest of that price on a shallow pullback to what has now become support.

Look to buy on new highs with about a 6% risk on the trade.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) is a $1 billion specialty pharmaceutical company focused on both generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation and intranasal products for a variety of ailments.

Here’s how the chart is setting up:

***Weekly Chart of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) — Source: TC2000***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

Surge score: 83/100
% Above 52-wk low: 78%
MFI reading: 71
Sales growth: +34%
Triple momentum: yes

I’ve chosen to use a weekly chart of AMPH above rather than a daily chart to show the size of the enormous base formation.

The stock quickly recovered from last year’s COVID selloff, but the shares have gone nowhere ever since.

A new 52-week high would be a strong buy signal for what could be a longer-term move.

Civitas Resources, Inc.

Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI) is a $5 billion oil and gas exploration and production company.

It has operations on half a million net acres in the Denver-Julesburg Basin and produces roughly 160,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

Here’s how the chart is setting up:

***Daily Chart of Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI) — Source: TC2000***

And here’s how the stock is setting up with my Stealth System:

Surge score: 97/100
% Above 52-wk low: 207%
MFI reading: 63
Sales growth: +223%
Triple momentum: yes

CIVI is seeing huge triple-digit sales and earnings growth over the last two quarters.

The energy sector has been the top-performing market segment in 2021, and Civitas Resources is an example of that market-leading strength.

This stock makes fairly severe pullbacks, with the last one notching a decline of around 20%.

I’m looking for shares to tighten up further from here, but I’d be a buyer at new highs whether it happens this week or six weeks from now.

Live Coaching Session

Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EDT, we’ll be hosting our regular weekly coaching session for Stealth Trades.

We’ll send you a login reminder that morning, just so you don’t forget.

We’ll cover all of our new stocks on the Watchlist as well as the rest of the stocks inside Stealth Trades.

You need to attend this session to get the most from your subscription!

In the meantime, you can watch the replay of our latest Stealth Trades session right here.

Best wishes for your trading,

Ross Givens

Editor, Stealth Trades