Weekly Update: 10 Charts Say Copper Will Go Higher
Good evening, and welcome to this week’s edition of Stealth Trades!
I have made clear my bullish stance on copper for all of 2026. And my thesis has not changed.
Supply is shrinking. Demand is growing. And the price will almost certainly go up.
Today, in this weekly update, I want to share the proof. Here are ten charts and graphics that illustrate the coming copper crisis.
This one is pretty self-explanatory. Supply cannot keep up with demand and that gap is expected to widen significantly over the next decade.
One of the counter arguments to this claim is that data centers buildouts could take longer than expected, and that new technology like photonics will lower copper demand.
But as you can see, data centers are just a small fraction of that demand.
Here’s a chart you’ve probably never seen before. It is the copper-to-Nasdaq ratio.
Copper futures may be at all-time highs. But on a relative basis, it trades at its lowest level to stocks in decades.
In addition, inventories are shrinking.
The “backwardation” is when front month futures contracts trade at a premium to contracts with a delivery date several months into the future. That is what is happening now, and it is the opposite of what we usually see.
Then there’s the often quoted “30-year commodity cycle.”
Personally, I’m not a big believer in these mythical multi-decade cycles. Technology is advancing at 10,000X the rate it was a century ago. These cycles should speed up. So, take that one with a grain of salt.
This one, on the other hand, is hard to ignore.
Discoveries of new copper deposits are marginal at best. And look how much we need to find.
Globally, we need roughly 700 metric tons of copper over the next 25 years. That’s equal to all the copper ever mined in the history of human civilization.
Then there are the charts.
The Global X Copper Miners ETF – ticker COPX, is setting up in a classic breakout pattern on the weekly chart.
Copper futures are showing a similar pattern.
And, if history repeats, we could be looking at $25 per pound by 2030.
This is my case for copper and why I believe it offers one of the most asymmetrical opportunities in the commodities sector.
Best wishes for your trading,
